Thursday, April 16, 2009

Round 1: Bulls vs. Celtics


So here we are. After 82 games, the Bulls pulled off making it to the playoffs with the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Their reward? The defending champion Boston Celtics.

After struggling for much of the season and appearing to have no chance at making the playoffs, the Bulls got hot at the end of the season after some mid-season trades that brought in John Salmons, Brad Miller, and Tim Thomas. The added depth to the low post and the added scoring from Salmons proved to be the missing ingredient the Bulls needed as they won 12 out of their final 16 games to finish the season at an even 41-41 record.

The Celtics on the other hand, have been in the top 2 in the Eastern Conference all season long. They exploded out of the gate to start the season with a 27-2 record that saw a 19-game winning streak. It appeared the 2008 champions were going to be unstoppable, but after some injuries and inconsistent play from their stars, they finished 62-20 — good enough for the #2 seed in the East behind the Cavaliers. Yes, 60 wins is impressive, but after starting the season 27-2, the Celtics had higher expectations earlier in the season. This is not to take anything away from Boston, they are the still the champs until someone can take them down.

So how do the teams match up? Obviously asking any NBA fan who they would vote for to win the series, the easy answer would be the Celtics. But there are some factors that could give the Bulls a few advantages and give Boston a run for their money.

Before we even get into comparing line-ups, let's establish that most of Boston's roster consists of the same players they had in 2008 when they won the title. The Bulls have about four players on the team with any playoff experience at all, but nothing compared to veteran squad of Boston.

Lets start with the centers: Joakim Noah vs. Kendrick Perkins. Noah averages 6.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, slightly worse than Perkins' 8.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Perkins is also bigger at 6'10, 280 lbs. to Noah's 6'11 232 lb. frame. Perkins has six full seasons and an NBA championship under his belt, while Noah has two years and no playoff experience. Noah is no stranger to the post-season big stage as he helped lead the University of Florida to two consecutive NCAA Championships. Noah is also more athletic and probably a little better defender than Perkins. Despite Noah's college success and defensive skills, the edge has to go to Perkins.

Now for the guards: Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon vs. Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen. The Bulls guards combine for 37.5 points, 9.7 assists, and 7.4 rebounds per game. The Celtics guards average 30.3 points, 11.1 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game. There is no question much of the Bulls scoring all season has come from Rose and Gordon. In fact, Gordon is the top scorer on either team averaging 20.7 points per game. The big issue for Rose and Gordon is their defense. Rose has shown flshes of good defense all season, but he struggles sometimes. Gordon might as well stand on the sideline while the team is on defense because he never learned how. Rondo and Allen obviously have the experience and fundamental advantage over the Bulls' guards, but when it comes to putting points on the board, the Bulls' guards get the edge. Not to say that Rondo and Allen are not capable of this either, but on any given night, Rose or Gordon can single-handedly take over a game, especially late in the game when it counts most. Because of that factor mixed with the lack of defense, I call a push for the Bulls guards vs. Celtics guards. It will literally be a game by game basis on who performs better, but if the Celtics can contain Rose, the Bulls will struggle.

For the forwards: The Bulls got the best news possible learning that Kevin Garnett will probably not play for the whole series. This factor could contribute huge for the Bulls to actually pull off the upset. The Bulls bring in Tyrus Thomas and John Salmons while the Celtics forward will be last year's NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce and Leon Powe. The Bulls forwards average 29.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game while the Celtics forwards average 28.2 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Obviously with Garnett out of the picture it gives the Bulls a huge break. Not only is Garnett a great player, but he is the team's leader and brings an enormous amount of energy to the court every night he plays. With KG out, I give it another push at the forward position. Thomas and Salmons are a great duo, but Pierce can single-handedly win a game on any night.

Now for the benches: The Celtics bring in an experienced group off the bench, but they aren't very deep. Stephon Marbury, Eddie House, and Glen Davis will be the biggest contributors off the bench, but none of them are very scary. House can light it up from the three point line at any given time however. The Bulls have one of the deepest benches in the NBA — with Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, and Tim Thomas. Both team's benches have a lot of NBA experience and even playoff experience. The benches could come in huge in some of the games because when one of the starters is not paying well, they need to come in and fill that slot. I think the Bulls have the better bench to do that.

So let's review:
Center: Celtics
Guards: Even
Forwards: Even
Bench: Bulls

The Bulls are going to have to play perfect basketball the entire series to be able to pull off an upset on the defending champs. If KG were able to play, I don't think the Bulls would stand a chance. However, KG cannot play and it really gives Chicago a big chance to take advantage of the situation. The last time the Bulls played Boston, they beat them 127-117. The Celtics were without KG at the time, proving the Bulls can actually beat them without the big man. The toughest thing for the young Bulls team will be staying mentally focused and putting forth 100% effort on every play of every game. If they can't stay focused, the veteran Celtics will eat them alive.

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3 comments:

  1. Gonna be tough for the Bulls to pull this off, but the C's not having Garnett helps.

    Getting the seventh seed is just another instance of the Bulls dropping the ball in the last game of the season when potentially higher seed in the playoffs is on the line. Remember two years ago at New Jersey?

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  2. We'll see what happens in Game 2 tonight, but I can't imagine Boston losing a second game to the Chicago at home. They absolutely can't afford to drop 0-2 with KG out and the Bulls playing solid basketball. The Bulls, admittedly, got a break with Pierce's second missed free throw at the end of Game 1 but I'm sure they'll take whatever they can get from the C's in Boston. I expect a 7-10 point statement win from Boston tonight. Not to rain on your parade…

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